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CV

Reseach

2017

**财政压力与地方经济增长:来自中国所得税分享改革的政策实验(with 陈思霞)[《财贸经济》,2017,4]

摘要:本文基于2002年的所得税分享改革构造了强度类DID模型,借助所得税分税关系调整的外生冲击测度财政压力变化,并使用来自城市一级的卫星灯光数据,实证检验了财政压力与地方经济增长之间的关系。研究发现,财政压力显著提高了地区灯光亮度。研究还发现:第一,在财政转移支付净流入地区,财政压力的经济激励效应并不显著;第二,财政压力下,地方政府倾向于支持房地产等地方高税行业的发展,而这种趋向于单一化的发展模式,可能会降低地方经济增长多样性,增加宏观经济风险;第三,所得税分享改革形成的财政压力,约束了地方政府过度的支出竞争,但以土地收入为资金支持开展的税收竞争仍普遍存在。本文的研究在支出分权和决策分权之外,为中国式分权解释地方经济增长奇迹提供了一种新视角,也为更加全面理解分税制度下地方政府的经济增长激励提供了新的经验证据。

关键词: 财政压力;城市灯光;所得税分享改革;倍差法;

2019

**A Baseline Medium-Scale NK DSGE Model for Policy Analysis [Dynare codes]

**宏观审慎框架下通道套利监管的有效性研究—基于动态随机一般均衡模型DSGE的分析(with 瞿凌云)[《金融经济学研究》,2019,34(5)][Dynare codes]

摘要: 构建含有影子银行部门的动态随机一般均衡模型,设定满足中国实践的宏观审慎监管规则和同业资管产品的违约概率,研究宏观审慎监管政策的有效性,结果表明: 全面宏观审慎监管既能有效防止信贷和同业资管的通道转换,缩短融资链条,又能增强金融机构的稳健性; 仅对商业银行进行的单向监管容易衍生新的通道,弱化监管的预期稳定作用,造成杠杆率高企、资金周转复杂; 打破同业资管产品的刚性兑付,资管产品利率能够更加准确地反映融资主体的信用风险,提高资金配置的效率。全面监管或者打破刚性兑付在实施过渡期均会加剧宏观经济的下行压力,长期来看,这种负向影响会逐渐消退,宏观经济将平稳增长。建议在宏观审慎监管调控中充分考虑影子银行的替代作用,同时把握兼容监管和经济发展的平衡关系。

关键词: 影子银行; 宏观审慎监管; 反事实分析

2020

**未预期的非税负担冲击:基于“营改增”的研究(with 彭飞)(《经济研究》,2020,55(11))

摘要:减税和降费都是供给侧结构性改革的重要举措,两者效果密切关联。本文基于2006—2016年中国私营企业调查数据,使用三重差分模型考察了”营改增”对企业非税负担的影响。研究发现,”营改增”显著增加了企业的各种规费支出,并且这一效应有增强的趋势,样本期间的涉企收费政策未能充分发挥制约效果。进一步发现,获得减税支持的传统增值税行业,非税负担显著增加,体现了”按下葫芦浮起瓢”的跷跷板效应;非政治关联、中小型和初创型企业,更容易遭受非税负担冲击。机制表明,财政压力和非税征管力度上升是”营改增”加重企业非税负担的重要原因。长期来看,深入推进涉企收费管理制度建设,有助于约束地方非税收入征管行为,促进企业转型升级。

关键词: “营改增”;非税负担;财政压力;非税收入征管;

2021

**A Baseline DSGE model of Climate Change for Climate Policy Analysis [Dynare codes]

Abstract:This note documents a DSGE model of Climate Change. I extend the NK model with geophisical variables, such as greenhouse gas emissions, the carbon cycle, radiative forcing, and climate change. In this model, I specify five different climate policy regimes: no policy, cap, intensive, tax, and mandate.

**“双支柱”政策协调搭配与货币政策选择(with 叶莉和王苗)[《金融监管研究》,2021,08][Dynare codes]

摘要:本文构建包含金融部门和“双支柱”调控政策的DSGE模型,系统比较不同的货币政策与宏观审慎政策的组合在应对不同外部冲击时稳定经济和金融效应差异以及福利差异。研究发现:一是相较于单一货币政策,纳入宏观审慎政策的“双支柱”调控框架具有更好的金融稳定效应;二是“双支柱”调控框架下不同货币政策在应对货币冲击时稳定经济和金融市场的渠道与效应存在显著区别,价格型货币政策通过利率传导渠道有助于维护金融市场的稳定,但在支撑实体经济发展方面效果不及数量型货币政策,然而运用数量型货币政策支撑实体经济发展时,要防范可能出现的金融风险隐患;三是“双支柱”政策协调搭配能够有效增加社会福利,其中价格型货币政策与宏观审慎政策协调配合社会福利损失最小。这意味着“双支柱”框架的调控效果依赖于货币政策工具的选择。因此,现阶段央行应进一步厘清不同货币政策与宏观审慎政策协调配合作用机理以实现稳定实体经济增长和防范系统性金融风险的目的。

关键字:货币政策;宏观审慎政策;金融稳定

**政府债务高杠杆、金融稳定与“双支柱”调控框架(with 叶莉和王苗)[《投资研究》,2021,40(11)][Dynare codes]

摘要:本文通过BVAR和DSGE模型,从实证和理论角度厘清政府高杠杆引致金融风险的传导机制,系统比较不同的宏观审慎政策与货币政策协调配合在应对财政冲击时稳定金融的效力。研究发现:政府高杠杆通过商业银行资产负债表渠道削弱了金融市场的稳健性;紧盯政府信贷增速与名义GDP增速的宏观审慎政策能够应对财政冲击;”双支柱”调控框架能够防范政府债务高杠杆引致的金融风险。据此,我国应尽快建立债务—金融风险传导隔离机制;针对不同性质和来源的金融风险,恰当选择宏观审慎政策;进一步健全货币政策和宏观审慎政策协调配合的”双支柱”调控框架。

关键字: 政府债务高杠杆;“双支柱”调控框架;金融稳定

交叠的秘密:经济学领域交叠DID导读与实践指导[Slides]

摘要:Difference in Differences (DID) design is the most important causal identification method in the main contribution of the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2021—natural experiment. And more and more researchers use the setting of staggered DID, but the recent DID econometric literature shows that the use of two-way fixed effects (TWFE) estimator under time-varying treatment may produce bias, or even get the opposite Causal effect. Based on this, this article reviews the traditional DID design, briefly describes the decomposition of staggered DID estimators, bias diagnosic, the latest robust DID estimator, and then uses a simulation data and two published economic papers (Beck, Levine, and Levkov (2010, JF); Cao Qingfeng (2020, China Industrial Economy)) to illustrate some necessary/best elements of staggered DID in practice. 关键字:Difference in Differences; time-varying treatment; heterogeneous treatment effect; Bacon decomposition; robust estimator

智慧城市的建设提高企业绿色技术创新了吗?(with 田淑英,孙安妮,夏梦丽)

摘要:The 14th Five-Year-Plan is an important period for China to enter the construction of ecological civilization,smart cities and the green technology innovation of enterprise will provide necessary technical support for achieving the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutralization.However, whether the construction of smart cities can improve the green technology innovation of enterprises still needs to be further explored.This paper takes the smart pilot city proposed in 2012 as a quasi-natural experiment, uses the data of green patents of listed enterprises from 2008 to 2019, empirically tests the impact of the smart city pilot construction on green technology innovation of listed enterprises in China by using time point did method for time-varying treatment, and tests the heterogeneity according to patent type, enterprise property right and geographical location.The results show that:(1)The construction of smart cities can significantly improve the level of green technology innovation of enterprises, and after a series of robustness tests, this conclusion still holds; (2) The results of Bancon decomposition and negative weight diagnosis show that the effect error of estimation is small, and the green innovation effect is also steady to the robust estimator;(3)The impact of smart cities pilot on enterprises applying for green patents varies with different types of patents, among which the impact on green utility model patents is greater;(4)The role of smart cities in green technological innovation of state-owned enterprises is more obvious than that of non-state-owned enterprises,and compared with the central and western regions, the smart city is easier to trigger green technology innovation of enterprises in the eastern region. 关键字:smart cities ;green technology innovation;staggered DID

2022

欧元区量化宽松措施对中国宏观经济与金融的影响研究(with 梁冰) **replication files

摘要:国内国际双循环新格局的形成要求厘清国际经济与政策不确定性对中国经济与金融的影响。本章基于全球向量自回归模型(Global Vector Autoregression Model)对欧元区量化宽松措施影响中国宏观经济运行的效果及其机制进行了实证分析。结果表明:(1)欧元区量化宽松措施主要影响中国通货膨胀;(2)货币市场短期利率、债券市场长期利率、股票市场股票价格指数以及信贷市场非金融机构信贷余额增速等对欧元区量化宽松措施单位冲击的响应均不超过0.05个单位;(3)外汇市场实际有效汇率以及通货膨胀预期等对欧元区量化宽松措施单位冲击的最大响应均不超过0.005个单位;(4)就国际关联机制而言,欧洲量化宽松措施会通过影响欧元区和美国货币市场短期利率、日本商品市场通货膨胀以及英国商品市场产出增速等影响中国通货膨胀,对中国宏观经济与金融市场其它领域的影响相对有限。

** The Multi-Dimension Shocks,Ocean Carbon Sinks and The Environmental Outcome in China——A simulation analysis based on DSGE-DICE approach]()(with Zhenhao Wei et al) [replication files

Abstract: Low-carbon development requires the joint efforts of the “carbon reduction” and the “carbon sink increase” sides. The research of ocean carbon sinks is beneficial to carbon emission reduction and ocean economic development. This paper innovatively constructs a multi-sectoral DSGE model with marine carbon sinks, attempting to provide policy suggestions for marine economic development and carbon emission policy choices. The conclusions are as follows: (1) The output growth of heterogeneous technology shocks is apparent, while the environmental effects of the carbon tax and carbon quota shocks are significant. (2) When the ocean carbon sink capacity is improved, the output effect of the heterogeneity shock is further enhanced, and the increase in the proportion of ocean output value has a more noticeable effect on the improvement of the environment. (3) When the two coefficients increase simultaneously, the welfare level of each exogenous shock increases, which realizes the dual effect of economy and ecology. From an empirical perspective, the results can reflect the multiple effects of marine carbon sinks on ecology, economy, and society, which have essential reference value for developing the marine carbon sink industry and upgrading marine industrial structure.

Key words: ocean carbon sink; carbon neutrality; DSGE; DICE; carbon emission reduction

** Climate Disaster, Macroeconomic Dynamics and Climate Policy(with Dan Huang and L. Guo) **replication files

Abstract: This paper examines the effect of a temporary climate disaster shock on macroeconomic dynamics and analyze the role of climate policy, including emission cap policy, emission tax policy, and intensity target policy. However, few literatures have focused on the core mechanisms affecting climate change which alter the output of economies and the environment. We extend the NK model with geophysical variables, such as greenhouse gas emissions, the carbon cycle, radiative forcing, and climate change. This model considers shocks to the possibility of disaster risk, the different policies, and the monetary policy and plots the impulse response of environmental and economic variables following the above shocks.

Key words: DSGE; climate change; climate policy

** Do VAT Cuts Help Stabilize Employment?Evidence from China’s VAT Rate Reform(with Xiufen Liu et al) **replication files

Abstract: We developed a simple model to study the influence of China’s added-value tax (VAT) rate reform on employment, and it delivers important information about how monopoly and unskilled labor will enhance the substitution of non-labor factors for labor. Taking China’s VAT rate reform as a quasi-natural experiment, we examined the model predictions with a difference-in-differences (DID) approach. We found that China’s VAT rate reform has a negative employment effect and that the decrease in the relative price of non-labor inputs to labor serves as an important channel through which non-labor factors squeeze labor out. Reducing the degree of market monopoly and improving the skill level of labor can effectively mitigate the adverse impact of the reform on employment.

Keywords: VAT rate; employment; tax reduction; DID model

The Consumption Response to Minimum Wage Hikes: New Evidence from Chinese Households]()(with Zhangxu Xia et al) [replication files

Abstract: This paper examines the effects of minimum wage increases on household behavior. Using data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) between 2012 and 2018, we find a significant positive effect of minimum wages on household consumption. Our results are robust to heterogeneous treatment effects and IV strategy. Mechanism analysis suggests that improving future income expectations and reducing precautionary motives rather than borrowing constraints help explain the effect. Then, our heterogeneity analysis shows that raising the minimum wage increases consumption both for minimum wage families and non-minimum wage families, but has no significant effect on improving consumption structure for minimum wage families. This paper provides a more comprehensive understanding of the economic effects of minimum wages and offers significant debate on the relevance of the minimum wage towards consumption-led growth.

Keywords: Minimum Wage; Household Consumption; Future Income Expectation; Precautionary Saving; Consumption Structure

科技和金融结合如何促进城市绿色发展?—基于促进科技金融结合试点政策的经验研究(with 孙安妮) **replication files

摘要:以2011年实施的促进科技和金融结合试点政策为契机,采用2004—2019年284个地级及以上城市的面板数据,构建渐进型双重差分实证评估科技金融结合对城市绿色发展的直接影响和间接影响。研究发现:总体而言,获批为科技金融结合试点可以直接提升城市绿色全要素生产率,且这种效应呈现一定动态性。作用机制检验结果表明,科技金融结合试点通过提高技术创新和产业结构升级两大途径间接改善城市绿色发展水平,产业结构合理化影响效应尚未显现。异质性分析发现,科技金融结合试点对城市绿色发展的促进作用在行政等级高、资源依赖性强的城市表现不够明显。

Environmental Regulation and Energy Efficiency: Evidence from Daily Penalty Policy in China]()(with kai hu; Dandan Li; Daqian Shi)R&R in Journal of Regulatory Economics [replication files

事件研究的秘密:从传统DID到面板事件研究设计导读与实践建议 **replication files

摘要:近年来,面板事件研究是自然实验或政策评估领域最受关注的研究设计方法,它也是传统DID研究设计的扩展。但目前,无论是计量经济学教材,还是应用性论文都较少关注DID事件研究的假设、时变协变量与估计方法的错配带来的估计量和推断偏误。本文基于已有的DID事件研究理论文献成果,首先回顾DID事件研究的核心假设和时变协变量可能带来的偏误;然后利用曹清峰(2020)的国家级新区对区域经济增长的拉动效应为例,说明与假设和时变协变量限制相一致的检验方法和估计方法;紧接着,以我国碳排放权交易试点为准自然实验,应用上述检验和估计方法来分析碳排放权交易对企业融资约束的影响。最后,提出一些实践建议和进一步研究方向。 关键词:面板事件研究;DID;时变协变量;假设检验

绿色低碳发展目标下财政政策促进企业转型升级研究——来自“节能减排财政政策综合示范城市”试点的证据](https://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/detail.aspx?dbcode=CJFD&dbname=CJFDAUTO&filename=CZYJ202208007&uniplatform=NZKPT&v=zSOMuuj0AzX1UhdPx1f9gnj_f-eBxlj_VvDMcVH6P5Zq26ji90N5yokMVuPKQTOD) (with 田淑英、孙磊和范子英) [replication files

摘要:本文基于“节能减排财政政策综合示范城市”的准自然实验,运用多时点DID和多期多个体DID等方法,实证检验了绿色低碳发展目标下财政政策对企业转型升级的影响。研究结果表明,示范城市试点对企业转型升级有促进作用,表现为生产效率优化、技术绿色创新和产品附加值提升。机制检验发现,示范城市试点通过财政激励的“资源配置效应”和环境规制的“创新补偿效应”改善企业内部融资环境,加快研发创新和数字化转型。进一步研究显示,地方政府财政压力、环保重视程度以及企业所有制和所处行业类型会对政策实施产生差异化影响。最后,从促进财政政策与环境政策协同联动、打好激励约束“组合拳”以及政策精准化实施等方面提出政策建议。 关键词:绿色低碳发展;财政政策;企业转型升级;异质性处理效应;政策退出;

货币化融资的财政刺激效果研究——兼论财政政策与货币政策的协调(with 王文甫)replication files

摘要:在我国经济下行压力加大的背景下,常规经济刺激政策实施空间逐渐缩小,需要积极探索和创新非常规经济刺激政策。基于标准宏观金融模型引入财政部门和央行互动,对传统平衡预算、买断债券和短期借款下财政支出刺激效果进行比较的研究表明,在经济平稳运行时期,央行买断政府债券的融资方式更能保持经济持续稳定发展;在货币政策受限时期,央行短期借款的货币化融资方式既可以提振经济,也可以促进金融市场流动性;在经济下行时期,使用央行短期借款来为财政支出融资可能带来较大的金融风险。因此,政策空间缩小和经济下行时,要更加注重财政政策与货币政策的协调配合与联动,更加注重跨周期和逆周期宏观调控政策有机结合。 关键词: 财政赤字货币化;财政乘数;央行短期借款;央行买断债券;

2023

数字人民币、国际经贸联系与宏观经济波动(with 王文甫)replication files

摘要:人民币国际化和数字化是中国经济高质量发展的重要动力,因此,从国际经济的视角来研究数字人民币的影响具有十分重要的理论和实践价值。基于数字人民币流动性服务和资产服务特征的两国动态随机一般均衡模型,对数字人民币发行、跨境使用的国际经济效应的分析结果表明,数字人民币发行与跨境使用可以稳定由外生技术和政策冲击引起的本国经济波动,同时加强中外经济与金融联系,且主要是通过加强国际贸易与国际金融联系来实现。数字人民币的跨境使用限制差异对本国经济的影响有限,但对外国的数字人民币持有和净出口有较大影响。数字人民币的流动性越强,越能稳定本国冲击造成的宏观经济波动,但可能会加剧国际经济波动。以上结论意味着,中国人民银行可以分环节、分步骤、有序推进数字人民币跨境使用试点,并注重对跨境使用限制的动态调整以及国际经济政策协调。 关键词: 数字人民币;国际经济联系;动态随机一般均衡;

Environmental regulation and energy efficiency: evidence from daily penalty policy in China(with K Hu, D Li and D Shi)replication files

Abstract:To achieve the twin aims of environmental improvement and economic progress, some cities in China have implemented a stringent environmental regulation, Daily Penalty Policy (DPP). Compared with previous environmental regulations, DPP dramatically increases the cost of environmental pollution, but it is unclear whether DPP can effectively control environmental pollution and improve economic development together. This study evaluates the environmental and economic effects of DPP by estimating the relationship between DPP and energy efficiency in time-varying difference-in-differences (Time-varying DID) models. Our results show that DPP increases the firm-level energy efficiency (𝛽=0.07, p < 0.01) as well as confirm the twin effects of DPP on environmental pollution (decline in coal consumption and pollution emissions) and economic development (increase in production output).

Do VAT cuts help stabilize employment? Evidence from China’s VAT rate reform(with x Liu, H Fang and L Zhang)replication files

Abstract:This paper develops a simple model to study the influence of China’s value-added tax (VAT) rate reform on employment. The model delivers important information about how monopoly and unskilled labor enhances the substitution of non-labor factors for labor. Taking China’s VAT rate reform as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper examines the model’s predictions with a difference-in-differences (DID) approach. The results suggest that China’s VAT rate reform has a negative employment effect and that the decrease in the relative price of non-labor inputs to labor serves as an important channel through which non-labor factors squeeze labor out. Reducing the degree of market monopoly and improving the skill level of labor can effectively mitigate the adverse impact of the reform on employment.

动态合成双重差分估计量:以房产税试点的经济效应为例(with 孙磊)replication files

摘要:因果推断已经成为经济学经验研究的主要目的,其中,合成控制法和双重差分法是最流⾏的两类因果推断⽅法,它们各具优势,也有不⾜。Arkhangelsky et al.(2021,AER)提出了⼀种新的因果推断估计量——合成双重差分估计量,兼具了合成控制法和双重差分法的优势。本⽂将合成双重差分估计量扩展到动态环境,得到处理后每⼀期的处理效应,类似于事件研究。为了说明动态合成双重差分估计量的用处和重要性,本⽂基于刘友⾦和曾小明(2018,中国⼯业经济,11:98-116)的数据来重新分析我国房产税试点对产业转移的效应。结果显示:(1)动态合成双重差分估计量与合成控制和双重差分估计量存在明显差异,且对两个传统估计量的效应识别起到了补充作用;(2)进⼀步完善原⽂结论,房产税的开征总体上加快了地区产业结构“腾笼换鸟”的动态趋势,特别是对重庆的⼯业、服务业的相对产值和 相对就业率均有“促增”作用,但是抑制了上海的产业结构升级,产业结构的调整更多依赖于低端服务业的发展。最后,给出了⼀些实践应用的建议。

双重差分法的最新理论进展与经验研究新趋势replication files附录,《广东社会科学》2023年第五期

[摘 要]在因果推断经验研究中,双重差分法是历史最悠久、最流行的方法。最近几年,双重差分法的计量理论取得了许多新的突破性进展,国外的经验研究已经开始应用这些最新成果来评估政策效应,而国内学界则稍有滞后,因此,讨论双重差分法的最新理论进展,并综述经验研究的新趋势,对于讲好中国经验故事尤为重要。本文首先介绍双重差分法的基本假设与原理,其次重点讨论异质性处理效应的最新理论进展及稳健估计量,再次阐述传统处理前趋势检验的方式,以及违反平行趋势假设的敏感性分析方法,最后讨论了混淆因子偏误的相关理论进展和应用方法。此外,本文还以国家级新区设立的政策实验为例,从实践的角度给出双重差分法的应用新趋势。 [关键词]双重差分 异质性处理效应 平行趋势 混淆因子

市场激励型环境规制与能源消费结构转型——来自中国碳排放权交易试点的经验证据(with 孙磊)replication files

[摘要] 能源消费结构转型是经济社会绿色低碳发展的重要抓手,以碳排放权交易为代表的市场激励型环境规制在转型进程中发挥着重要作用。本文基于中国2013年设立的碳排放权交易试点为准自然实验,匹配省级宏观数据库和上市公司微观数据库,运用双重差分、合成双重差分等方法,实证检验了碳排放权交易试点对能源消费结构转型的影响。研究发现,碳排放权交易试点加速了能源消费结构双重替代进程,指数值提升5.3%,有效助推实现碳排放总量和强度的“双控”目标。政策效应的发挥,得益于企业绿色创新效应、产业结构升级效应、绿色金融深化效应和公众行为驱动效应,但也受到地方政府环境治理重视程度和地区产业结构特征、可再生能源丰裕度的影响。进一步研究发现,碳排放权交易试点还产生了其他环境红利,且并未造成明显的社会福利损失。本文为政府利用市场机制推动能源消费结构转型,进而如期实现“双碳”目标提供更多理论支撑和经验证据。

房价预期冲击、内生不确定性与总需求不足(with 郭柃沂)replication files

[摘要] 经济预期的下行是我国总需求不足的重要原因。本文通过构建一个包含房价非理性预期冲击和内生不确定性的动态随机一般均衡模型,研究房价预期冲击对总需求的影响及其传播机制。研究发现:(1)房价下跌预期冲击会引起总需求下降,除了“房屋财富幻觉机制”和“金融加速器机制”外,“不确定性机制”也是冲击传播的重要渠道。(2)用我国宏观经济数据估计模型后,房价下跌预期冲击造成了更大程度的总需求下降,这主要是不确定性放大了房价下跌冲击的总需求抑制效应。(3)房价下跌预期冲击与上涨预期冲击的总需求效应存在异质性,面对下跌预期冲击,盯住观测房价预期值的LTV政策能有效地熨平总需求波动。政府部门应该加强预期管理,采取能降低不确定性的总需求刺激措施。

面板数据模型的秘密:从DID、SC到统一框架的最新进展replication files

[摘 要]面板数据是因果效应识别和推断中最常用的数据类型之一。近年来,面板数据的因果推断方法有许多进展。本文结合最新的理论计量研究成果,试图对面板数据的因果推断方法进行系统性归纳梳理,以厘清面板数据模型的最新理论进展和实践中需要注意的一些问题。本文从双向固定效应模型、双重差分模型和合成控制法的估计量、识别假设入手,简要回顾交叠处理下的异质性处理效应的偏误和稳健估计量,梳理连续型DID、多处理变量DID、因子模型和共形推断,以及双重差分和合成控制法的结合框架。本文以现实数据为例,详细展示双重差分和合成控制法结合框架的应用,以及在实践中可能面临的一些常见问题,例如适用环境,与双重差分法的配合问题等等。最后,本文针对面板数据因果推断的应用给出了一些实践建议,并讨论了一些有待进一步研究的开放性问题。

关键词:面板数据;双重差分;合成控制法;统一框架;异质性处理效应

书籍

量化宏观经济学导论及Julia 应用:从基础计算方法到前沿领域replication files

内容提要:本书将向大家呈现数值方法,尤其是量化宏观经济学中使用的一些数值方法:解确定性和随机性方程组、对数线性化、模拟DSGE 模型、动态规划,以及包含扰动法、投影法和参数化期望法在内的多个高级数值方法。本书也涵盖了最近的异质性代理人模型中使用的一些工具、方法。本书最大的优势在于理论和实践应用的平衡。虽然,上述一些著作也包含理论的应用,但是本书首次向读者介绍了利用Julia 的代码来计算数值。Julia 是一种免费、开源的编程语言。通过Julia,读者可以迅速学习如何解宏观经济模型,并用编程语言来实现定量分析。

推动绿色发展:中国环境宏观经济理论与政策研究replication files

内容提要

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Teaching

Green Finance and Macroeconomics

2021-08:coming soon

DSGE入门

2019-05:《DSGE建模与编程入门》【课程大纲】

应用计量经济学讲稿

《应用计量经济学讲稿》 【配套数据和dofile】

本课程试图引导本科生或一年级研究生了解当代计量经济学的现状,并掌握一些常用的微观计量与宏观计量理论与操作,学习Stata与通用编程语言的一些基本知识。

本课程要求你们已经熟悉初级宏微观经济学知识,并对多重微积分、概率论、线性代数和数理统计有一定程度的理解。相关数学与统计基础可参见许文立和许坤的微信公众号”宏观经济研学会“。如果你们曾经学习过一些计量经济学的知识,上本课程效果更佳。但计量知识并不是必需的。推荐一本非常好的本科计量教科书:Wooldridge (2015)、Stock and Watson (2015)。

11种交叠处理DID稳健估计量

For using and plotting multiple DiD packages in Stata, the event_plot command (ssc install event_plot, replace) by Kirill Borusyak is highly recommended. It estimates and combines results from five different estimators. Example of how to do event study plots using different packages is given in the five_estimators_example.do dofile on Github

The event_plot usage example has been extended three:

(1)David Burgherr has a dofile on dropbox.

(2)Pietro Santoleri has a dofile that plots seven different estimators on Github.

(3) Albert Alex Zevelev has a dofile that plots seven different estimators w/o heterogeneous treatment effects on Github.

Wenli Xu has extended Compare-DiD-Estimators to include jwdid, IFE, MC and SDID. The dofile plots eleven different estimators on Github.

NOTE: In addition to the above DID estimators, there are flexpaneldid(Eva Dettmann, Alexander Giebler, Antje Weyh (2020). Flexpaneldid: A Stata Toolbox for Causal Analysis with Varying Treatment Time and Duration. IWH Discussion Papers No. 3/2020.) and staggered_stata(Jonathan Roth , Pedro H.C. Sant’Anna (2021). Efficient Estimation for Staggered Rollout Designs) in STATA to address the heterogeneous treatment effects on staggered DID. But the former yields a single ATT estimator, and the latter is used with R, so they are not included in my dofile.

2022-03-28

Anhui University & Simon Fraser university

安徽大学课程

2022

《应用计量经济学slides》

Short Course

2019

2019年4月 《DSGE简介》1天课程 北京大学经济学院

2019年7月 《DSGE建模与编程入门》5天短期课程 中国人民大学经济学院

2019年11月 《动态随机一般均衡DSGE模型及量化宏观经济》 国家外汇管理局

2021

2021年11-12月 《绿色金融与DSGE建模及dynare编程》 华中师范大学金融系

2022

2022年3月31号 《DSGE及dynare和Stata编程导论》 北京大学经济学院

《DSGE及dynare和Stata编程导论》【dynare和stata代码】

2022年9月-12月 《DID应用文献解读》 安徽大学经济学院

《DID应用文献解读》【stata代码】

CIMERS

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